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END NOTE: UKRAINE'S PRESIDENTIAL RIVALS TRADE BARBS IN TELEVISED DEBATE
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PUTIN PARAPHRASES STALIN TO DESCRIBE SITUATION IN UKRAINE... At the same 21 December news conference in northern Germany, asked whether a victory by opposition leader Viktor Yushchenko in the Ukrainian presidential election would mean a personal defeat for him, President Putin paraphrased Josef Stalin to answer: "Leaders come and go, but the people remain." Stalin once said, "Hitlers come and go, but Germany and the German people remain." "I know Mr. Yushchenko as I do the current prime minister, [Viktor] Yanukovych," Putin added. "He was also a member of President [Leonid] Kuchma's team, like Yanukovych, and so I don't see any problem." VY

UKRAINE GAS HEAD DETAILS TURKMEN GAS TALKS. Yuriy Boyko, chairman of Ukrainian oil and gas company Naftohaz Ukrayiny, told Russia's "Kommersant-Daily" on 21 December that if Turkmenistan raises the price of natural gas to $60 per 1,000 cubic meters, Naftohaz might look for other suppliers. "If Turkmenistan sells the same fuel at the same station to Gazprom for $44 and to Naftohaz for $60, why should we overpay by 36 percent?" Boyko asked. Queried about Naftohaz's plans should Turkmenistan insist on the higher price, Boyko said, "We'll buy [gas] from Gazprom or someone else at an acceptable price." Boyko also noted that "Gazprom supports our price position in Turkmenistan, since a price increase will lead to a rise in the transit price and the gas will become uncompetitive." Meanwhile, Gazprom Deputy Chairman Aleksandr Ryazanov told "Kommersant-Daily," "Taking into account our expenses, we can permit ourselves to purchase Turkmen gas at a price of $25 per 1,000 cubic meters." Both Boyko and Ryazanov noted that talks are ongoing, but little time remains before the end of the year. Turkmen negotiators recently suggested that they would like to raise the current price of $44 per 1,000 cubic meters, paid half in cash and half in kind, to $60 for shipments in 2005 (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 6 December 2004). DK

UKRAINE'S PRESIDENTIAL RIVALS TRADE BARBS IN TELEVISED DEBATE

Ukrainian presidential candidates Viktor Yushchenko and Viktor Yanukovych on 20 December met in a live televised debate ahead of the upcoming repeat of last month's flawed presidential runoff.

In contrast to their first debate on 15 November, this time the two men were allowed to address each other directly with questions. The new format livened the discussion and arguably made it more interesting to watch; nearly half of Ukraine's 47 million citizens viewed the 100-minute verbal duel, in which Yushchenko and Yanukovych traded accusations and barbs. According to many analysts, Yushchenko came out as the undeniable winner of the debate by assuming the role of a "president-in-waiting" and repeatedly putting Prime Minister Yanukovych on the defensive.

Yushchenko had two strong points that he emphasized throughout the debate. First, Yushchenko accused Yanukovych's election staff and political patrons, including President Leonid Kuchma and presidential-administration chief Viktor Medvedchuk, of stealing 3 million votes during the abortive 21 November runoff. Second, he sarcastically questioned Yanukovych's recently assumed status of an oppositionist to the ruling regime. Moreover, Yushchenko resolutely shunned Yanukovych's repeated attempts to elicit a pledge from him that both sit down and discuss "how we are to live after the elections." Yushchenko made an unambiguous impression during the debate that he is not going to treat Yanukovych as an equal political partner in the future. This, perhaps, was the bitterest pill Yanukovych had to swallow during the debate.

Yushchenko also managed to neutralize to some extent the myths disseminated about him by his opponent's election staff alleging that, as president, he would discriminate, economically and otherwise, against the country's Russian-speaking eastern and southern regions for their support for Yanukovych. "Under my presidency, each region will take an appropriate place in accordance with its potential," Yushchenko said in conclusion of the debate. "Second, nobody will close even a single Russian-language school. Third, nobody will divide Ukrainians into three sorts of people, as it was shown on posters distributed in Kyiv and all of Ukraine by a pro-government force.... [And] nobody will close a single Orthodox church in favor of some denomination or other."

The psychological advantage gained by Yushchenko from the "Orange Revolution" made him on 20 December a much more relaxed and self-confident interlocutor than during the first debate, in which, according to many analysts, he was lethargic and unconvincing and clearly lost to Yanukovych. On the other hand, Yanukovych has apparently not recovered from the invalidation of the 21 November vote by the Supreme Court and the subsequent political compromise that changed the election rules and visibly quelled the executive branch's enthusiasm to employ "administrative resources" on Yanukovych's side in the 26 December repeat runoff.

According to a poll conducted by the Kyiv-based Razumkov Center from 14-19 December, Yushchenko should safely win the 26 December ballot, with 48 percent of the vote against Yanukovych's 39 percent; 5 percent of respondents said they will vote against both candidates, 3 percent said they will not go to the polls, and 5 percent are undecided.

It also has not passed unnoticed that Russian President Vladimir Putin, who unofficially backed Yanukovych in the Ukrainian race and called to congratulate him even before all votes were counted, has seemingly reappraised the election situation in Ukraine. Asked on 21 December in Germany whether a Yushchenko victory would mean a personal defeat to him, Putin said he is ready to work with either candidate. "I know Mr. Yushchenko," international news agencies quoted Putin as saying. "He worked in the same position as the current Ukrainian prime minister, Mr. Yanukovych. He was the head of the Ukrainian government and we cooperated with him. It was a fair cooperation. He, like Mr. Yanukovych, is a member of the team of the current president, Mr. Kuchma. I see no problems here."

According to Interfax-Ukraine, Ukrainian analysts at a roundtable in Kyiv on 21 December agreed that the most probable scenario for Ukraine in the near future is a Yushchenko presidency under which Yanukovych will assume the role of the leader of an opposition camp. This camp -- as opposed to Yushchenko's Our Ukraine and its allies -- might include Yanukovych's Party of Regions, Viktor Medvedchuk's Social Democratic Party-united, and Petro Symonenko's Communist Party.

That Yanukovych might become an important political player in the post-Kuchma era was confirmed by a poll conducted by the Razumkov Center from 6-9 December, in which respondents were asked about their preferences in a hypothetical parliamentary ballot. It turned out that only four parties -- Yushchenko's Our Ukraine (28.8 percent backing), Yanukovych's Party of Regions (14.5 percent), Symonenko's Communist Party (6 percent), and Oleksandr Moroz's Socialist Party (4.5 percent) -- can count on overcoming the 3 percent voting barrier that is required for winning parliamentary mandates (parliamentary elections in 2006 are to be held under a fully proportional party-list system that was approved by the Verkhovna Rada in March).

In other words, the "Orange Revolution" might not only install Yushchenko in power and give Ukraine's shaky democracy a new lease on life, but also contribute to the transformation to a much more transparent and consolidated political scene -- a scenario that can only be welcomed by the two sides.

END NOTE: UKRAINE'S PRESIDENTIAL RIVALS TRADE BARBS IN TELEVISED DEBATE
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UKRAINIAN OPPOSITION ALLEGES THAT PREMIER IS PREPARING 'COUNTERREVOLUTION.' Lawmaker Mykola Tomenko, a member of opposition presidential candidate Viktor Yushchenko's election staff, suggested to journalists on 21 December that presidential rival and vacationing Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych is preparing two scenarios aimed at undermining the 26 December presidential vote, Interfax reported. "Yanukovych's team has two scenarios today: a legal and a counterrevolutionary one," Tomenko said. "Under the legal scenario, Yanukovych's staff will question the constitutionality of the Supreme Court's ruling [ordering a repeat vote] and will insist that the [8 December] amendments to the law on presidential elections led to several violations [during the vote]. The second scenario provides for the use of policemen and army servicemen by Yanukovych's team to influence the voting procedure and prepare a counterrevolution." Tomenko also said the pro-Yushchenko camp will resume rallies on Independence Square in Kyiv on 22 December, one month after they began in the wake of the fraudulent 21 November vote. JM

UKRAINE'S OPPOSITION LEADER STRESSES STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP WITH RUSSIA. Our Ukraine bloc leader and presidential candidate Yushchenko said on Ukrainian Radio on 21 December that cooperation with Russia is of strategic interest for Ukraine, Interfax reported. Yushchenko was commenting on Russian President Vladimir Putin's statement earlier the same day that the latter sees "no problem" in cooperating with Yushchenko if he is elected president of Ukraine. "We will always have a strategic policy and political strategy for Russia," Yushchenko said. He also stressed that "our priority is integration into Europe." Asked what his first foreign trip would be if he were elected president, Yushchenko said he would go to Moscow. Putin campaigned openly for Yushchenko rival Prime Minister Yanukovych in the run-up to the first two rounds of the presidential vote. JM

UKRAINIAN YOUTHS UNBLOCK PRESIDENTIAL ADMINISTRATION. The radical youth organization Pora (It's Time) unblocked the main entrance to the offices of the presidential administration in Kyiv on 22 December, removing a barricade of motor vehicles and a cordon of young people that has been in place for the past month, Interfax reported. Pora has left a picket in place in front of the building, however. JM

UKRAINE TO SEE 12,000 FOREIGN OBSERVERS ON 26 DECEMBER. Ukraine's Central Election Commission has registered 12,271 foreign election monitors for the 26 December repeat of the flawed late-November presidential runoff, Interfax reported on 22 December. JM

MOLDOVAN CHRISTIAN DEMOCRATS ACQUAINT JOURNALISTS WITH ELECTORAL PROGRAM. The opposition Popular Party Christian Democratic (PPCD) on 21 December presented its electoral program for the 2005 parliamentary elections, Flux and Infotag reported. The program includes fighting poverty, job creation, ending labor migration, ensuring sustainable economic growth, and fighting corruption and organized crime. The PPCD also said it would restore the country's territorial integrity by abolishing a 21 July 1992 accord with Russia that provides the international legal framework for the presence of Russian troops in the Transdniester. The PPCD wants to develop a "strategic partnership" with the United States, the EU, Romania, and Ukraine, and would abolish the constitutional article stipulating Moldova is a neutral state. The party's candidate for prime minister is PPCD Chairman Iurie Rosca, while Deputy Chairmen Vlad Cubreacov and Stefan Secareanu are suggested as foreign and defense minister, respectively, in the event of a PPCD electoral victory. MS

UKRAINE'S PRESIDENTIAL RIVALS TRADE BARBS IN TELEVISED DEBATE

Ukrainian presidential candidates Viktor Yushchenko and Viktor Yanukovych on 20 December met in a live televised debate ahead of the upcoming repeat of last month's flawed presidential runoff.

In contrast to their first debate on 15 November, this time the two men were allowed to address each other directly with questions. The new format livened the discussion and arguably made it more interesting to watch; nearly half of Ukraine's 47 million citizens viewed the 100-minute verbal duel, in which Yushchenko and Yanukovych traded accusations and barbs. According to many analysts, Yushchenko came out as the undeniable winner of the debate by assuming the role of a "president-in-waiting" and repeatedly putting Prime Minister Yanukovych on the defensive.

Yushchenko had two strong points that he emphasized throughout the debate. First, Yushchenko accused Yanukovych's election staff and political patrons, including President Leonid Kuchma and presidential-administration chief Viktor Medvedchuk, of stealing 3 million votes during the abortive 21 November runoff. Second, he sarcastically questioned Yanukovych's recently assumed status of an oppositionist to the ruling regime. Moreover, Yushchenko resolutely shunned Yanukovych's repeated attempts to elicit a pledge from him that both sit down and discuss "how we are to live after the elections." Yushchenko made an unambiguous impression during the debate that he is not going to treat Yanukovych as an equal political partner in the future. This, perhaps, was the bitterest pill Yanukovych had to swallow during the debate.

Yushchenko also managed to neutralize to some extent the myths disseminated about him by his opponent's election staff alleging that, as president, he would discriminate, economically and otherwise, against the country's Russian-speaking eastern and southern regions for their support for Yanukovych. "Under my presidency, each region will take an appropriate place in accordance with its potential," Yushchenko said in conclusion of the debate. "Second, nobody will close even a single Russian-language school. Third, nobody will divide Ukrainians into three sorts of people, as it was shown on posters distributed in Kyiv and all of Ukraine by a pro-government force.... [And] nobody will close a single Orthodox church in favor of some denomination or other."

The psychological advantage gained by Yushchenko from the "Orange Revolution" made him on 20 December a much more relaxed and self-confident interlocutor than during the first debate, in which, according to many analysts, he was lethargic and unconvincing and clearly lost to Yanukovych. On the other hand, Yanukovych has apparently not recovered from the invalidation of the 21 November vote by the Supreme Court and the subsequent political compromise that changed the election rules and visibly quelled the executive branch's enthusiasm to employ "administrative resources" on Yanukovych's side in the 26 December repeat runoff.

According to a poll conducted by the Kyiv-based Razumkov Center from 14-19 December, Yushchenko should safely win the 26 December ballot, with 48 percent of the vote against Yanukovych's 39 percent; 5 percent of respondents said they will vote against both candidates, 3 percent said they will not go to the polls, and 5 percent are undecided.

It also has not passed unnoticed that Russian President Vladimir Putin, who unofficially backed Yanukovych in the Ukrainian race and called to congratulate him even before all votes were counted, has seemingly reappraised the election situation in Ukraine. Asked on 21 December in Germany whether a Yushchenko victory would mean a personal defeat to him, Putin said he is ready to work with either candidate. "I know Mr. Yushchenko," international news agencies quoted Putin as saying. "He worked in the same position as the current Ukrainian prime minister, Mr. Yanukovych. He was the head of the Ukrainian government and we cooperated with him. It was a fair cooperation. He, like Mr. Yanukovych, is a member of the team of the current president, Mr. Kuchma. I see no problems here."

According to Interfax-Ukraine, Ukrainian analysts at a roundtable in Kyiv on 21 December agreed that the most probable scenario for Ukraine in the near future is a Yushchenko presidency under which Yanukovych will assume the role of the leader of an opposition camp. This camp -- as opposed to Yushchenko's Our Ukraine and its allies -- might include Yanukovych's Party of Regions, Viktor Medvedchuk's Social Democratic Party-united, and Petro Symonenko's Communist Party.

That Yanukovych might become an important political player in the post-Kuchma era was confirmed by a poll conducted by the Razumkov Center from 6-9 December, in which respondents were asked about their preferences in a hypothetical parliamentary ballot. It turned out that only four parties -- Yushchenko's Our Ukraine (28.8 percent backing), Yanukovych's Party of Regions (14.5 percent), Symonenko's Communist Party (6 percent), and Oleksandr Moroz's Socialist Party (4.5 percent) -- can count on overcoming the 3 percent voting barrier that is required for winning parliamentary mandates (parliamentary elections in 2006 are to be held under a fully proportional party-list system that was approved by the Verkhovna Rada in March).

In other words, the "Orange Revolution" might not only install Yushchenko in power and give Ukraine's shaky democracy a new lease on life, but also contribute to the transformation to a much more transparent and consolidated political scene -- a scenario that can only be welcomed by the two sides.