Ukrainian Election Post Factum
By Walter Derzko and
Dr. Andrew Zhalko-Tytarenko
-----------------------
More then a week after Ukraine’s Parliamentary Elections on Oct. 28, 2012, officials were still counting votes cast in eight hotly contested districts across the country. National exit polls showed that 73 % of the electorate voted against the Yanukovych regime but officially, the Party of Regions is coming out on top. The United Opposition is calling this a clear example of massive and systemic vote-rigging, and has called for a protest meeting in front of the Central Election Commission in Kyiv on Nov. 5. The regime now clearly recognizes that they do not have enough votes and alone can’t secure a two thirds majority in the Parliament to change the Constitution in 2013 to avoid a presidential election in 2015. Now, every one of the closely contested election precincts has become a battle ground for the Yanukovych regime to cling to power and for the United Opposition to inch out individual wins.
One Central Election Commission member suggested the contested individual races may have to be decided with a new vote. This could include over 20-30 or more precincts identified by the United Opposition and UDAR. Now, the United Opposition and UDAR are saying that they may reject their mandate to sit in parliament and may call for new elections and not just reruns in contested precincts.
These
elections offered a number of surprises and many yet unexplained
events and occurrences:
Surprise
Wins
-
Yanukovych’s
domination in parliament has greatly diminished, with the election of
the United Opposition, Klitschko’s UDAR Party and Svoboda entering
the Verkhovna
Rada
with a comfortable margin to get past the 5% barrier. Equally
surprising is the strong showing of the Communist Party, likely a
protest vote against the Yanukovych regime in Donbas and in the
south.
Loss
of Confidence
-
Yanukovych
and the Party of Regions has lost over 30% of their loyal
supporters in the past six years in their stronghold – Donetsk
region.
Systemic
Voter List Tampering
-
In this election, it appears that far fewer people voted in single mandate districts than in party list districts. One would have thought the reverse, where a voter should have been more eager to vote for an individual to represent them in parliament instead of an anonymous name on a party list. The difference is almost one million voters. This can be potentially explained by voter list manipulation. OPORA, a civic group with the largest network of local election monitors, discovered that election authorities tampered with voter lists right on Election Day.
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Prime Minister Azarov have issued statements in the press calling the elections fair. Adrian Karatnycky in defending the regime on Facebook says:
“The independent watchdog Committee of Voters of Ukraine, which deployed thousands of monitors nationwide, indicated that the number and scale of election violations were not dissimilar to past elections under the Presidency of Viktor Yushchenko, all of which were judged free and fair.”
This contradicts the claims of massive countrywide falsifications as observed by Western monitors, governments and NGOs.
Final results may not be known for weeks or even months until we settle all pending court battles, possible re-elections and witness how many “Tushky” defect from the United Opposition or UDAR or the independents and cross the floor to the regime.
The resulting balance in the proportional system gives the Party of Regions only 30%, while the United Opposition received 25.53%, Svoboda -10.44%, and UDAR - 13.96%. The Opposition has a clear win in the proportional system, with 49.93% support versus 43.19% collected by the Party of Regions and the Communist Party. More importantly, the opposition got control over the vast majority, or possibly all of the Kyiv constituencies. The situation in parliament will probably still favour the Party of Regions due to the territorial constituencies, but the Party of Regions already failed to reach its goal of single-handed control of the Parliament, and will have to seek an alliance with the Communists, and force some independents to join the ranks of the pro-Yanukovych majority. The parliamentary majority that will be formed this way can fall apart almost at any time. As a result of 2+ years of ineffective and wasteful management, the national economy is in serious decline, and the downturn in the world steel markets adds to the mix. As the crisis deepens, Yanukovych will have fewer and fewer incentives available for him to hold the parliamentary majority together, while the reliability of the enforcement instruments that he has will decay as well.
At the time of this OPED it is not even clear, if any scenario for a future Parliament will even materialize. The United Opposition, UDAR and Svoboda together already hold 177 seats out of 450, and if they will decide not to accept the results of the elections, the new Parliament will be illegitimate and unable to work. This bold move is being discussed between the opposition parties now; it is obvious that if new elections, or even a re-vote were to be held, the result will be more favourable for the opposition, and less favourable for the Party of Regions, but it is also obvious that there is no amount of “bending of the laws” or a more violent scenario that the ruling party will not try to retain its grip on power.
Despite the tense political situation, it’s reassuring to see the humour that the nation is exhibiting to cope with this dire situation. The well-known theme song of the capital: How Can I Not Love You, My Kyiv? (як тебе не любити Києве мій?) has been turned into “How Can I Cheat You, My Kyiv? (як тебе надурити Києве мій?) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j_mZdpXr1WE