Sanctions Revisited

By Walter Derzko

In that past month or so, the word “sanctions” is being heard more frequently in the mass media. It’s being applied not just to the standard suspects, Iran, Syria, Belarus or North Korea, but to new bad boys on the street, Russia and Ukraine, whose international image is becoming increasingly and irrevocably tarnished. The democratic situation in both countries is seriously backsliding and they are being labelled by the media and analysts as “rogue states” and “isolated states”. Russia is faulted internationally for the Magnitsky case, the lawyer who died in custody after exposing corruption in Russia, and Ukraine is targeted for the illegal political revenge and persecution of opposition members, including Yulia Tymoshenko, Yurij Lutsenko, and other charged and imprisoned politicians.

The three demonstrations in front of the Ukrainian consulate in Toronto were organized last year not just to show support for imprisoned politicians in Ukraine, but in the longer term, to get politicians from all three political parties in Canada to start thinking about and publicly raising the issue of eventual sanctions.

Recently, Canadian MP James Bezan raised the issue of sanctions in the House of Commons.

“In order to stop the Ukrainian government’s attack on democracy, I am asking the Government of Canada to freeze foreign assets held by Ukraine’s leadership and cancel their travel visas as well… I also believe we need to implement economic sanctions, and suspend talks on the Canada-Ukraine Free Trade Agreement. Diplomacy to date has not worked and we must pressure President Yanukovych to change course from what appears to be draconian Soviet-era policies.” (Bezan Calls for Action Against Ukrainian Government - http://www.jamesbezan.com/)

Voice of America (VOA) reported that American Congresswomen Marci Kaptur does not reject the idea that Ukrainian regime members could soon be the target of US sanctions, including economic sanctions and visa freezes. She has promoted a US resolution that Ukraine does indeed have political prisoners (http://www.voanews.com/templates/widgetDisplay.html?id=149122655&player=article)

The demand for sanctions now became more vocal, after the alleged beating of former Premier Yulia Tymoshenko by prison guards, during her forced transfer to the hospital in Kharkiv. World-wide reaction of outrage to this clear-cut case of human rights abuse and torture was instantaneous and unanimous. Tymoshenko provided a statement through her lawyer: “Around 21:00, my neighbour was made to go out of the prison cell, and later, three sturdy men came into the cell. They approached my bed, threw a bed-sheet over me and began to drag me off the bed, the three together applying brutal force. In pain and despair, I started to defend myself as I could and got a strong blow in my stomach through the bed-sheet. They wrung my arms and legs, lifted me and dragged [me] in the bed-sheet into the street. I thought these were the last minutes of my life. In unbearable pain and fear, I started to cry and call out for help, but no help came. At some moment, I fell unconscious because of awful pain and came back to consciousness in a hospital ward.” (http://www.tymoshenko.ua/en/article/yulia_tymoshenko_24_04_2012_02)

In protest, German President Joachim Gauck cancelled a visit to Ukraine next month for a meeting of Eastern European Presidents, and opposition politicians in Germany are urging their government to boycott the Euro 2012 football championship in June.

In a surprising and unexpected move, even the Russian Foreign Ministry called on the Ukrainian government to “demonstrate humanity” towards Tymoshenko.

In fact, the Ukrainian Opposition in parliament, largely Batkivshchyna (Tymoshenko’s Fatherland Party) has published a sanctions list of about 50 people earlier this year. A shortlist of 13 people (mid to high level functionaries) soon will be sent to governments and international organizations around the world.

Sanctions, however, are a tricky business. First and foremost, they are usually kept secret. Individuals find out only after they have applied for a visa and their applications have been rejected.  Sanctions are usually the last resort after you have exhausted all other tactics including diplomatic talks. You don’t want to use them too early and usually they are reserved for critical moments.  During the Orange Revolution, the US Vice President threatened to freeze the President Leonid Kuchma’s assets in the West, if he gave the order for tanks in the streets and bloodshed, revealed Oleh Rybachuk recently.  Kuchma backed off.

Canada I suspect will not press for sanctions unilaterally, since it could involve reciprocity and difficulties for existing programs and consular duties.  To be effective, sanctions must be multilateral. It’s been Canada’s foreign policy to impose sanctions, only if they are called for by the UN Security Council or if a significant number of like-minded alliance countries also impose them. But I have no doubt that Canada will take the lead in pressing its international allies and back an international chorus of countries calling for sanctions against the Ukrainian regime, when the time comes.

Walter Derzko is the Executive Director of the Strategic Foresight Institute in Toronto.