Theatre of the Absurd: The Ukrainian Political Circus

By Wolodymyr Derzko

While visiting Lviv last week, most of my time was spent with family around Easter celebrations. I couldn’t help but ask people about the current political chaos. Most were ambivalent, too busy preparing for the holidays and getting Easter baskets ready for church blessing. Even the sensational news on Good Friday that Sergey Kivalov, the former head of the Central Election Commission, who was accused of accosting a court clerk and stealing a judge’s stamp, unfazed most people. “Those kind of stunts happen all the time,” said one person, dismissing it as irrelevant.

Many voters are disillusioned by Yushchenko and never had any illusions about Yanukovych. Opinion is split on Tymoshenko. Some are mistrustful, thinking she’s unpredictable and too authoritarian. Others see her as a modern Joan of Arc that can rid Ukraine’s government of corruption and graft.

The political situation is changing daily, difficult for even seasoned analysts to keep up, let alone predict, what will happen next.

The Constitutional Court seems deadlocked and all sides are saying that they will not abide by the Court’s ultimate decision because of the biased nature of the appointments and the well-publicized accusations of political pressure and bribe-taking.

Some say the stalemate can be resolved through compromise, negotiation and conciliation.  I do not think it will work. To begin, all sides need to be willing to sit down and discuss trade offs. The Party of Regions does not seem interested in fair discussions and, as history has shown, goes back against their word.

The problem with conventional politics in a clash is that you only have trade-offs and compromise as tactics. Invariably, one side wins and the other looses - to plot political revenge.

Ukraine needs to design a way out of this situation –-creating new political concepts, as groundbreaking as the first constitution in the 16^th Century. One new concept that might be explored is that political leaders (presidents or prime ministers) can serve only one four-year term. They would then spend more time actually running the country, forgetting about re-election. Another dire flaw is that voters now vote for a political party, represented by a secret slate instead of a representative that is accountable to them in parliament. Without such drastic changes, there is no guarantee that these stalemates will not reappear again in the future.

Three added surprises emerged in the last week.

First, Yulia Tymoshenko drew a line in the sand in the UK’s Daily Telegraph on April 16. The Russian DUMA began meddling again in internal Ukrainian affairs, passing a resolution that Ukrainian President Yushchenko’s decree to dissolve parliament was unconstitutional.

In a story clearly aimed at Western consumption, Tymoshenko promised to act swiftly to end Russia’s recent attempts to pull Ukraine back into its sphere of influence. “Our leaders have been too mentally dependent on Russia…We have behaved like vassals from day one of our independence. I want friendly relations with Russia but they must be to our mutual benefit.” To take on Russia, she says she must take on the Party of the Regions and the oligarchs in the eastern industrial heartland of Ukraine. “The Party of Regions is a vast corporation that runs Ukraine as though it were a limited company,’’ she said. “Yanukovich is not an independent politician. He is a double marionette of Russian elites and clan managers.’’ Evidence of this appeared in Ukraina Moloda on April 11 when the Party of Regions was accused of embezzling $140 million for elections through the Finance Ministry and Naftohaz Ukrayiny.

The second surprise was Yanukovych’s statement in the same Daily Telegraph on April 22 –“I support a pro-Western course, which means building a democratic, wealthy and socially healthy society,” he said. “The difference between my position and that of my opponents is that they are trying to go Western as soon as possible.” He supports “gradual integration” with the West. Even the journalist was taken aback.… “Mr. Yanukovich speaks with a permanent frown … [in] a stark building from the Stalin era, which made his conciliatory words about the West - seem all the more surprising.”  Choosing his words carefully was also meant for Western consumption. A test will be if this stance is highlighted in the Party of Regions’ election platform.

Surprise number three was the decision to award soccer’s 2012 European Championship to Ukraine and Poland which may do far more for Ukrainian unity than what any politician can say or do. If done right, cities like Lviv and Kyiv will get new jobs to build modern hotels, roads and airports.

What is so sad throughout this political theatre of the absurd it that the average voter has been totally ignored. So, football and economics have largely replaced politics in the past week - a short reprieve from the ongoing political circus in Ukraine.

Wolodymyr Derzko is an Associate of CERES, Munk Centre, University of Toronto and an expert on strategic thinking, planning and foresight.