Looming Showdown in Ukraine

It is looking increasingly likely that Ukraine will be facing a major political showdown this fall in the aftermath of the scheduled parliamentary elections on October 28.  Yanukovych’s Party of Regions, which currently controls the Verkhovna Rada, has seen a significant drop in opinion polls from some 34% at the time of the last elections to 21% in the more recent polls.  Yanukovych’s own personal popularity and that of his administration has dropped even more dramatically - from a high of some 39% in 2010, the current government’s popularity rating has dropped to a current low of about 14%.  Realistically, there is no way that either Yanukovych or his party can hope to win any kind of fair and honest election.  The key of course, are the words fair and honest.

Yanukovych, needless to say, has no intention of giving up power and will do all he can to ensure the continuation of his dubious regime.  One of the most obvious tactics has become brutally clear – eliminate all significant political opposition.  He has already engineered the conviction and jailing of his most prominent political opponent, former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, in a show trial that was as much a travesty of justice as any that were perpetrated during the heights of Stalin’s purges.  Over the past year, three other former Cabinet Ministers who served under Tymoshenko have also been imprisoned – former Interior Minister Yuriy Lutsenko, former Defence Minister Valeriy Ivashchenko and former Ecology Minister Georgy Filipchuk.  Countless other lower level opposition politicians are also currently sitting behind bars, while many others have left the country fearing a similar fate.  The most recent of these is Arsen Avakov, former Governor of Kharkiv oblast and a Tymoshenko supporter, who fled to Italy.  The Ukrainian government has sought to extradite him, but the Italian government has rightfully refused to co-operate in this pretence at justice.

There is also the not-so-subtle use of government administrative clout, particularly the abuse of tax and regulatory authority to hound and muzzle all corporate and media supporters of Tymoshenko, or any of the other key political opponents to the Yanukovych regime.  Further, there has been a significant increase in the intimidation and beatings of Ukrainian journalists who dare criticize the current government.  Through such means, the government has been very successful in imposing de facto control over most of the large newspapers and television outlets in Ukraine.

In previous elections, the Yanukovych forces have been able to profit immensely from the fact that the opposition forces, though they command a majority in total, have been significantly fragmented and unable to cooperate, seriously dividing the opposition vote and enabling the minority Region forces to sneak into power.  In fact, many knowledgeable political sources are convinced that many of the so-called “opposition” parties are being secretly funded by the Regionnaires or their oligarchic bankers to purposely splinter the opposition and create political disunity.  Although there have been efforts in past elections to create a united opposition coalition, they have met with little success.  As one well known Ukrainian politician Volodymyr Vynnychenko once said - “Democrats unite five minutes before their execution.”

There are signs that things may be different this time around.  In recent weeks, Arseniy Yatseniuk, head of the second largest opposition party, the Front for Change, announced that they would unite with Tymoshenko’s Batkivshchyna Party.  If Vitaliy Klychko’s UDAR (Ukrainian Democratic Alliance for Reform) can also be brought into the mix, then there may be hope for a real change.  However, Ukraine’s ego driven politicians have shown little inclination to create the kind of solidarity that will be needed to defeat the likes of Yanukovych and his minions.

In the meantime, Canada, Poland, the U.S. as well as many of the members of the European Union are beginning to marshal their efforts at insuring that there will be a strong foreign observer presence to scrutinize the running of the upcoming election.  Yanukovych and the Regions Party are in desperation mode and will do everything they can to win.  I have no doubts that there will be significant efforts to manipulate and falsify the results leading to another hotly disputed result.  This time though, I think Yanukovych and his Regions brethren are well aware that losing means prison, exile or worse, and they will stop at nothing to keep their power, privileges and fortunes.  I fear that the kind of restraint exhibited by both sides during the Orange Revolution is not likely to be repeated.